How many launches sit within 1km of a very-high-demand school?
Of the 107 new launch and GLS projects in PropertyInsider.sg's tracker, 42 sit within a straight-line 1km of at least one very-high-demand primary school — a school whose 2025 P1 ballot reached Phase 2B or earlier, or cut into Singapore Citizens living within 1km at Phase 2C — and 87 sit within 2km of one. That single sentence is why we built the primary schools map: in 2025, 109 of the 179 schools that admitted P1 pupils balloted in at least one phase, and at 64 schools the Phase 2C ballot reached citizens inside the 1km band. When more than a third of the launch pipeline overlaps the 1km circles of the tightest schools, school demand stops being a soft amenity and becomes a measurable input to project demand.
Key findings
- Schools that balloted in at least one phase, 2025 (of 179 with P1 intake)109 schools
- Tracked launches within a straight-line 1km of a very-high-demand school42 of 107
- Median avg psf, selling OCR launches — ≤1km of such a school vs the rest$2,297 vs $2,197 · +4.6%
- Same comparison in the RCR — the premium inverts$2,459 vs $2,570 · −4.3%
- Median HDB upgrader share — ≤1km of such a school vs the rest34.7% vs 27.5% · +7.2 pts
- Schools already balloting at Phase 2A in the live 2026 exercise35 schools
Why does primary school distance move property demand?
Because MOE wrote it into the admission rules. The P1 Registration Exercise fills each school in phases — Phase 1 for siblings, 2A for alumni and school-community ties, 2B for parent volunteers and community connections, 2C for households with no prior tie, and 2C Supplementary for those still unplaced. Whenever applicants exceed vacancies in a phase, MOE conducts a ballot, and priority inside that ballot runs by citizenship and home-school distance: Singapore Citizens within 1km first, then 1–2km, then beyond 2km, before Permanent Residents in the same distance order. The official distance is computed from Singapore Land Authority address-point data and is checkable, address by address, with the OneMap School Query tool.
The consequence is a rare thing in property analysis: a location attribute with a published, annual, quantified demand signal attached. A condo's "near good schools" claim can be tested against how the nearest school's ballot actually ran. In 2025, the tightest open-phase contests in the country were Princess Elizabeth Primary (5.66 applicants per Phase 2C place), Nan Hua Primary (4.05), South View Primary (3.78), Northland Primary (3.46) and Chongfu School (3.45) — every one of them anchoring an established OCR or west-coast family estate rather than a prime district.
How we measured it
We assembled a dataset of all 182 MOE schools that admit at P1 — the 179 mainstream primaries plus the three P1-admitting through-train schools (Catholic High, CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls' and Maris Stella High) — from MOE's General Information of Schools dataset on data.gov.sg, geocoded each campus (including the two schools operating from newly relocated campuses), and attached each school's vacancy, applicant and ballot record for every phase of the completed 2025 exercise and the in-progress 2026 exercise. Each school then receives a four-tier demand rating computed from the 2025 record: very high (balloting at 2B or earlier, or a 2C ballot reaching SC <1km — 71 schools), high (2C balloted — 16), moderate (2C(S) ballot only, or 2C demand ≥0.8× vacancies — 25), and vacancies available (67). Three schools with paused P1 intake are excluded from tiering. Distances to the 107 tracked projects are straight-line (haversine) estimates from coordinates. The full dataset is a proprietary PropertyInsider.sg compilation, rendered interactively on the primary schools map.
Where the school premium shows up — and where it doesn't
The cleanest comparison is among currently selling launches within one market segment, since CCR–RCR–OCR pricing differences would otherwise drown the signal.
| Segment | ≤1km of very-high-demand school | All other selling launches | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCR | $2,297 psf (n=12) | $2,197 psf (n=13) | +4.6% |
| RCR | $2,459 psf (n=11) | $2,570 psf (n=16) | −4.3% |
| CCR | $3,444 psf (n=3) | $3,264 psf (n=15) | +5.5% (small n) |
The OCR result matches the intuition: in suburban family estates, a launch inside the 1km band of a school whose ballot reached citizens within 1km commands roughly a hundred dollars more per square foot at the median. The RCR result is the corrective. City-fringe pricing is set by waterfront positioning, MRT interchange adjacency, and CBD proximity — attributes that do not correlate with school catchments, and several of the RCR's priciest launches sit in precincts with no heavily balloted primary school at all. Anyone quoting a universal "school premium" for Singapore is averaging away the segment where it fails to appear.
The clearer effect: who buys, not what they pay
Prices are a blunt readout because they capitalise every attribute at once. Buyer composition is sharper. Among selling launches in the tracker, the median share of buyers with HDB addresses — our proxy for upgrader families — is 34.7% at projects within 1km of a very-high-demand school, against 27.5% at other projects: a gap of about 7 percentage points. That is exactly the group for whom the 1km band has direct cash-equivalent value — households with children approaching P1 age, for whom an address can substitute for years of volunteering or an alumni connection. It also shapes the demand curve developers face: upgrader-heavy projects concentrate demand in 3- and 4-bedders and in quantum bands reachable from HDB sale proceeds, a pattern our budget matcher makes visible per project.
One number the school story does not move: sales pace. Median sold percentage among selling OCR launches is actually a touch lower near very-high-demand schools (90.8% vs 94.7%) — school-adjacent projects tend to price their advantage in rather than leave it as a discount, so they sell at a similar, not faster, pace. Proximity is capitalised, not free.
What 2026 is already showing
The live 2026 exercise adds a twist. MOE announced in April 2026 that P1 intake would be gradually reduced across most schools as cohort sizes shrink — which mechanically tightens ratios even where applicant numbers hold steady. The early evidence is visible in our data: 35 schools had already balloted at Phase 2A at our last refresh, before the open phases began. For buyers, that cuts both ways: smaller cohorts mean fewer competing families over time, but smaller vacancies mean the 1km band matters more in any given year. The schools map shows each school's live 2026 numbers next to its completed 2025 record as each phase concludes, and our price-trends dashboard now carries the school-proximity cut of the pricing data.
What this data does not show
Three limitations, stated plainly. First, correlation is not a school premium. Schools with brutal ballots sit in established, amenity-rich estates; some of the psf gap near them is the estate, not the school. Our segment split reduces but does not eliminate this. Second, straight-line distance is not official distance. MOE measures from SLA address points; a project at 0.97km on our estimate can fall outside 1km officially. Every distance on this site carries that caveat, and the OneMap School Query is the only check that counts for registration. Third, tiers are histories, not promises. Ballot outcomes move with cohort sizes, intake adjustments and estate maturity; three schools have paused P1 intake entirely while relocating, and a school's tier can change in a single cycle. Buying within 1km of a hot school improves ballot odds — it guarantees nothing, and Phase 2C at the tightest schools ballots even among 1km citizens.
Implications for buyers and upgraders
If a specific school is the goal, work backwards from the ballot record, not the marketing copy: check the school's phase-by-phase ratios on the schools map, confirm the official distance for the exact address with OneMap School Query, and treat the 30-month occupation requirement for distance-priority admission as part of the timeline — which interacts directly with BTO/resale timing and any HDB sale, worked through in our sell-HDB-buy-launch guide. If the school is a nice-to-have, the RCR numbers above are the reminder that you are not automatically paying for it everywhere. And if you are underwriting a launch as an investment, the upgrader-share gap is the practical takeaway: school-adjacent OCR projects draw a structurally deeper pool of owner-occupier demand, which historically supports resale liquidity in the family-sized unit types — a pattern you can test against realised exits in our resale exit dashboard.
Frequently asked questions
Why do primary schools affect Singapore property demand?
Because P1 admission priority is written in distance. When a primary school receives more applicants than places in a phase, MOE ballots, and Singapore Citizens living within 1km of the school are admitted first, then those within 1–2km, then everyone else. An address inside the 1km band of an oversubscribed school is therefore a measurable admission advantage, and families pay attention to it when choosing where to live — 109 of 179 schools balloted in at least one phase of the 2025 exercise.
How much more do condos near popular primary schools cost?
In PropertyInsider.sg's tracker, currently selling OCR launches within a straight-line 1km of a very-high-demand school transact at a median average of about $2,297 psf against $2,197 psf for OCR launches that are not — a gap of roughly 4.6%. In the RCR the pattern inverts (median $2,459 psf near such schools versus $2,570 psf elsewhere), because city-fringe pricing is dominated by other locational factors. The premium is real but conditional, not universal.
Do popular schools change who buys a new launch?
Yes, and more clearly than they change the price. Among currently selling projects in the tracker, the median HDB upgrader share is about 34.7% at launches within 1km of a very-high-demand primary school, versus about 27.5% at other launches — roughly 7 percentage points higher. Upgrader families with children approaching P1 age are the buyer group for whom the 1km band has direct cash-equivalent value.
What counts as a very-high-demand primary school?
In PropertyInsider.sg's tiering, a school is very high demand when its last completed P1 exercise saw balloting at Phase 2B or earlier, or a Phase 2C ballot that reached Singapore Citizens living within 1km — meaning even the best-placed applicants were not safe. 71 of 182 schools met that bar on 2025 data. High demand means Phase 2C balloted for any group; moderate means balloting only at 2C Supplementary or 2C demand at 0.8× vacancies or above; the rest had vacancies available throughout.
Is the 1km measured in a straight line?
MOE's official home-school distance uses Singapore Land Authority address-point data, checkable address-by-address with the OneMap School Query tool. PropertyInsider.sg's distances are straight-line estimates from coordinates and are indicative only — a project estimated at 0.97km can fall outside 1km on the official measurement, or vice versa. Always verify a specific address with OneMap before relying on 1km or 2km status.
Will school demand tiers stay the same each year?
No. Ballot outcomes move with cohort sizes, MOE intake adjustments and estate demographics — MOE trimmed P1 intake across most schools from 2026 as cohorts shrink, and in the live 2026 exercise 35 schools had already balloted at Phase 2A at our last refresh. Three schools (Damai, Kranji and Townsville Primary) have paused P1 intake entirely from 2025 to 2027 while relocating. A demand tier is a documented history, not a guarantee.
Sources & methodology. School general information (address, planning area, zone, type, nature, session, SAP/GEP/IP indicators) is from MOE's General Information of Schools dataset on data.gov.sg (downloaded July 2026). P1 vacancy, applicant and ballot figures by phase are MOE's published vacancies-and-balloting data for the 2025 exercise and phase-by-phase releases of the 2026 exercise, as compiled at sgschooling.com; intake-reduction context follows MOE's April 2026 announcement. School coordinates are OneMap-derived postal-code geocodes, with relocated campuses (Pioneer Primary at Tengah Garden Avenue; St. Margaret's Primary at Sophia Road) added manually. Project prices, sold rates, HDB-buyer shares and coordinates are from PropertyInsider.sg's project dataset of 107 tracked launches and GLS sites (updated 16 July 2026). Demand tiers, distance computations, medians and gaps are PropertyInsider computations; the tiering rule is published in full on the schools map and inside the dataset itself.
Disclaimer. This article is independent research published for general information and education. It is not financial, property or education advice, and it does not consider your objectives or circumstances. All distances are straight-line estimates from coordinates, are not the official MOE home-school distance, and carry no guarantee of accuracy — verify any specific address with the OneMap School Query tool before relying on 1km/2km status. Ballot statistics describe past registration exercises and do not predict future outcomes; medians are computed over small samples and may not be representative. Figures marked (est.) are estimates. PropertyInsider.sg is an independent research publication; our editorial and disclosure practices are set out in our editorial policy.
Update history
- Article published alongside the launch of the primary schools map, based on the completed 2025 P1 exercise, 2026 exercise data through Phase 2A, and PropertyInsider.sg's project dataset (updated 16 July 2026). Next scheduled update: after MOE releases 2026 Phase 2B and 2C outcomes.